Nick Nanos, founder and president of pollster Nanos Research, called the Liberals’ loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s “a canary in the coal mine.” He called it a referendum on confidence in the government and Justin Trudeau.

“While we can’t project the results of this by-election into future federal elections,” Nanos said, “if we compare how much the Conservatives have gained since the 2021 general election to how much the Liberals have lost, we can conclude that the conditions are in place for Trudeau to step down, either voluntarily or involuntarily. And that changes everything.”

On the map of Ontario, the blue color of the Conservatives is spreading further, including the Ottawa region beyond downtown. Negative sentiment toward the Liberals is growing in the Atlantic and Prairies, and the formerly almost entirely red city of Vancouver is now also blue. Although the overall situation in British Columbia is extremely difficult, and all parties are actively competing for votes.

Across the country, Nanos Research notes that support for the Conservatives is at 41%, the Liberals at 27%, the NDP at 14%, the Bloc Québécois at 8%, and the Greens at 4%. At the same time, Nanos warns that the NDP could leave the alliance with the Liberals at any moment and try to take away votes not only from the Conservatives, but also from their former allies.

Anastasia Chupina