Trump’s 51st-State Idea Is on Hold: Why Canada Is More Than Just America’s Neighbor

By Anna Prikhodko

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with royal biographer Robert Hardman that he does not intend to carry out his previously voiced idea of turning Canada into the “51st state” and has effectively abandoned any invasion scenario. According to an excerpt from Hardman’s new book published this week, Trump acknowledged that Canadian statehood and historical identity cannot simply be reshaped within the timeframe of his presidency. These revelations came as preparations were underway for the state visit of King Charles III and Queen Camilla to the United States at the end of April.

According to Hardman, the conversation took place at Mar-a-Lago in December 2025. There, Trump, the author writes, even spoke in a semi-joking manner about a “war with Denmark” over Greenland. In response, Hardman asked him to leave Canada alone as well, reminding him that Canada had long been a loyal ally and that any attempt at pressure would provoke the displeasure of the King as Canada’s head of state. After that, Trump asked whether Canadians still recognized the monarch and then, clearly softening his tone, admitted that Canada would not be so easy to deal with.

I admit that this news brought me personal relief. Even if some of Trump’s earlier remarks were political bravado, the rhetoric about absorbing Canada sounded disturbing. For now, the threat seems to have receded somewhat. But American politics is far too unpredictable for any final conclusions. Canadians themselves feel this as well: according to Ipsos, 56% believe a possible invasion is more of a bluff, yet a comparable share still feels uneasy, and only 37% are confident that the Canadian Armed Forces could defend the country on their own.

And yet Canada is not the weaker side. With a population of about 41.5 million compared with 341.8 million in the United States, the country possesses an enormous resource base: proven oil reserves are estimated at 171 billion barrels, Canada holds 20% of the world’s freshwater reserves, around 369 million hectares of forest, 62.2 million hectares of agricultural land, and in 2024 the country produced more than 60 types of minerals and metals. On a per capita basis, Canada truly has far more resources.

That is precisely why Canada looks like a tempting prize to its southern neighbor. But that is also why it has leverage of its own. Canada remains the main source of imported oil for the United States: in 2024, U.S. imports of Canadian oil averaged 4.1 million barrels per day, and nearly all Canadian crude oil exports traditionally go to the American market. It is no coincidence that Canada’s trade surplus in goods with the United States is largely explained by oil supplies. And this week, Brent crude rose again to around $98 per barrel after sharp fluctuations caused by the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz. All this means that with competent diplomacy and sound economic management, Ottawa is fully capable not only of defending itself, but also of firmly standing up for its interests. And that, perhaps, is the most important thought today.